Biden Isn't Leaving

I could be wrong, but hear me out

Author’s note: I am working on a long piece on the Republican Convention. I hope to have it out next week. The audio article didn’t do well… so I’m going back to what I know.

—Virgil

President Biden is not dropping out

This is going to be a short article, but with all of the news from the last couple of days from very smart talking heads who are sure that Biden is considering how and when to drop out of the race, I felt the need to point out a few things.

I’m going out on a limb here… by the time you read this article or shortly thereafter, I could be proven wrong. However there are three problems with the theory that Joe can and will drop out.

1: Joe Biden doesn’t want to be pushed out.

There’s an attempt by the media to put the blame for Biden’s stubbornness on to Dr. Jill and Hunter and perhaps a few others. Some of that is true, they also don’t want Joe to quit. That said… Joe doesn’t want to quit either. The President is not without agency here. He could quit if he wanted, and he is apparently being told to by many people in his party.

I can understand why he would reject the call from Obama and some of the others in the Democrat coalition. They have never liked each other and he doesn’t want to be bullied out of the Presidency by someone he doesn’t like. But Obama isn’t the main one pushing here. It’s Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.

Those two people are friends, allies, and colleagues going back decades. They were supporters of him getting the nomination in 2020, even though they knew he was in mental decline. They defended and protected him over the last 4 years as certain press outlets and even individual citizens questioned his abilities. These are his people… and they are telling him it’s time to go.

Dr. Jill and Hunter don’t have the ability to shield the President from Pelosi and Schumer. They have seen him, face to face, and told him he can’t win and needs to get out. He has flatly refused and continues to flatly refuse. That’s on him.

2: There is no mechanism to remove him from the ticket.

Over 90% of the delegates are his. I believe the number is over 1900 delegates, pledged to Biden. Understand, these aren’t Democrat delegates that are pledged to Biden because he won… they are Biden delegates. They can’t vote for someone else, and while some text messages have been leaked from some of them saying they are concerned about his ability to win… if he’s in the race come nominating time, those delegates will throw their hat in for Joe Biden.

Further, Joe Biden is the sitting President of the United States. He is the leader of the Democrat Party. There isn’t another leader. Pelosi is just a congresswoman. Hakeem Jeffries is the Minority Leader, but doesn’t have the long history with Biden that some others do. Schumer is Majority Leader in the Senate, which is pretty powerful, but he is not the recognized leader of the Democrats and couldn’t be… considering he’s Jewish and half his caucus isn’t a fan.

The 25th Amendment isn’t an option. In order to put it into effect, they would need a 2/3 majority of both the Senate and the House. Republicans would simply say, “You said he’s fine. We believe you. Now that he has gotten some bad polling results, you are trying to throw the President of the United States under the bus over politics. It’s disgusting and undemocratic. As Republicans who care about democracy, we refuse to take part in your coup.” And that would be that.

As has been said over and over since the debate, if Joe Biden doesn’t decide to give it up, the nomination is his.

Period.

3. There is nobody to replace him

At this point, jumping in at the top of this ticket would be a suicide mission. It is very unlikely that anyone in Democratic politics could beat Trump right now. It’s late in the game. The money has dried up. They are behind by a lot.

Beyond that, the new nominee wouldn’t have time to put their own team together and come up with their own message. They would just inherit the losing team of incompetents from whoever is left at the Biden organization.

If you are a talented up and coming politician in the Democratic Party, what on earth would possess you to jump into this boiling pot?

Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania is a seriously talented politician. He’s young, moderate, handsome, and likable. The same could be said of Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky. They aren’t going to ruin their political future by jumping into this nightmare and almost definitely losing to Trump.

Think of Gavin Newsom. A more calculating, slick, political animal doesn’t exist. What evidence is there anywhere that he is willing to take responsibility for this car accident of an election?

If you’re Gavin, you’re looking at the Dem Party and the press and everyone else and saying, “You aren’t about to lay this in my lap. I’m putting my own team together for 2028 with an open field, no Trump, and a good shot at the nomination. Dive on your own damn grenade…”

How about Gretchen Whitmer? She’s another talented politician with a great future. Four years from now will be four more years since she was accused of tyranny with Covid restrictions. Polling suggests she could win Michigan… but she’d lose everything else. She’s not giving up her future for this.

So what about Kamala Harris. She’s pretty plug and play, right?

I don’t think Kamala wants to jump in on the top of this ticket any more than anyone else does. If Joe dropped out, she really wouldn’t have much of a choice… because someone has to do it, and she’s next in line… but her best bet is to ride this thing out, hope for a miracle in November, then just wait the old man out.

Further… good luck finding a running mate. Who honestly believes any of the aforementioned prospects or others like Sen. Mark Kelley are interested in sullying their good names by being on that ticket? It would be like getting promoted to Captain of the Titanic… after it struck the iceberg. Nobody is applying for that job.

The good news for Kamala if Biden stays is that even when the ticket loses, she actually does have a little cover by being able to say; “Look, the Bidens are the bad guys here. I was a good soldier and did what I could, but they always treated me like crap. This wasn’t my fault.”

If she does that, maybe she could run for Governor of California in a few years or get appointed as a judge somewhere. That’s better than she would do if she took the top of the ticket and got her clock cleaned. All polling says she’d lose worse than Biden, and would likely take all of the blame.

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There are a couple of political realities that need to be recognized by the press and the Democrats. First, you really only get one shot as the nominee of a Party. If you lose the general election, you are generally done. Second, the first one is extra true when you lose to Donald Trump. Just ask Hillary.

With all due respect to Mark Halprin (whose reporting has been really great!) and the Democratic insiders… I think Biden is going to stay. He doesn’t want to go, nobody can make him go, and there’s nobody to put in his place. I’m afraid they’ve checkmated themselves.

On a positive note, that DNC Convention is really going to be something to behold. A bunch of people who were just trying to throw the old man overboard, on stage making speeches about what a good guy he is? Ha!

A crowd of Democrats will be chanting “Four more years!” to an guy who doesn’t even know where he is!

Green haired Hamas supporters will be burning American flags and Israeli flags in front of burned out stores! That’s going to be a hell of a show.

Anywho… that’s what I think. Have a great weekend all! I’ll be back next week with some GOP Convention thoughts! (If you’re really quiet… some say you can still hear Trump talking. 😆)

God bless,

—Virgil