Can Donald Trump Win?

Let's look at the numbers

Time to nerd out!

Depending on where you get your news, you might be wondering if Donald Trump can actually win the Presidency again. He is as polarizing as he’s ever been, but a lot of people out there love him, and even the ones who don’t have no love for the current administration.

As is my way, I’m going to dig into the numbers a little bit and see where we stand. Just as a reminder, I have never voted for Donald Trump. I am not a Trump supporter and think he is a bad person. That said, he was a better President than Joe Biden by leaps and bounds. That’s my opinion, and if I have a bias, that would be it. I don’t like him, but I don’t like him less than I don’t like Biden.

So let’s look at the numbers. All polling is from the Real Clear Politics aggregator.

I don’t think we are going to see any surprises in the “leans”, “likely”, and “solid” camps. This isn’t the year that New Mexico goes Republican and I don’t see Trump pulling out Virginia, either. On the other hand, sorry Democrats, Florida, Texas, and Ohio are not going to be in play this year. The toss ups are in grey. Let’s dig in.

Nevada

Nevada has been trending toward Republican for about a decade now. Pretty much the entire population of the state is around Las Vegas, and it really doesn’t matter how red the rest of the state is, the state will go how Las Vegas goes.

Historically there has been a strong connection to the Democratic Party because of the amount of union membership in Nevada. Virtually all jobs are union jobs from hotel maids, to blackjack dealers, to entertainers, to construction folks.

The ghost of Harry Reid holds strong in that town and always has. That said, the times are changing and of the many groups the Democrats have lost, few have been as impactful in a place like Las Vegas as union members.

Seeing as union membership has dropped across the country significantly in the last bunch of decades, the Democrats haven’t done virtually anything to help them. Starting with NAFTA in the 90’s and continually sticking their fingers in their eyes in order to placate the cultural far left, union member loyalty to Democrats is at an all time low.

This is the year that Nevada breaks for a Republican President. I think Trump takes it by 4+. This is supported by the latest polling.

Trump + 8 Electoral Votes

Arizona

Despite his best efforts to lose Arizona by backing that disaster of a candidate Kari Lake and continually making enemies of people who supported John McCain, Biden is so bad that Arizona will be safe for Trump. I think Lake might lose, which is tragic because it’s a layup of a race for a competent candidate, but Trump will pull it out by 5 or 6.

Current polling has him up by 4.5 and his lead will only solidify from here.

Trump + 11 Electoral Votes

Minnesota

Minnesota is going to be a tall order. They haven’t voted for a Republican for President since Nixon in 1972. They were the only state in the country that didn’t vote for Reagan in 1984. It has been a Democratic stronghold for as long as anyone can remember.

That said, the Democrat domination of the state has been trending thinner in recent years. If I have to make a call, I think Trump loses Minnesota, but much like in 2016… I think he loses by a lot less than what the Democrats are used to.

Biden wins by 3 points.

Biden + 10 Electoral Votes

Nebraska 2 and Maine 2

These are those strange extra vote that Nebraska and Maine get separate from the rest of the state. Biden won the Nebraska one in 2020 handily even though Trump won it in 2016. Trump won the Maine district both times. I’m splitting the difference here and giving Nebraska 2 to Biden and Maine 2 to Trump.

No change.

Wisconsin

Another former Democrat stronghold that I think is likely to go to Trump. The riots of 2020 hit them hard, and while it was a Biden victory, it was by less than 1% and I think part of that was because of the Covid voting rules and some ballot harvesting. Wisconsin is has a large rural population and the people in the cities are fed up with Democrat rule.

Trump ekes out a victory here by 2

Trump + 10 Electoral Votes

Michigan

Another tight one. Another historically Democrat state that is now a complete toss up. Trump is currently leading in Michigan by more than 3. I think he increases that lead.

Trump by 5.

Trump + 15 Electoral Votes

Pennsylvania

This is the biggest test for Trump. He definitely thinks it’s a “must win” state and it probably is. There are paths to 270 without it, but it’s a lot harder.

At the end of the day, I think he will pull it out. I think 2020 was an anomaly. Without the voting rule changes because of Covid and that idiot Dr. Oz running for senate, Trump would have easily taken it in 2020.

Tump by 4 is my prediction, but the polling currently has it neck and neck, so it’s just a guess.

Trump + 19 Electoral Votes

North Carolina

North Carolina shouldn’t even be a toss up. Trump takes it by 5+

Trump + 16 Electoral Votes

Georgia

Georgia is not a swing state. It never has been. Trump did his best to lose the Senate races there and succeeded. That said, the old quarrels are over and Trump will easily win Georgia.

Trump by 6 or more.

Trump + 16 Electoral Votes

Analysis:

The numbers are the numbers, guys. The Democrats are pretending that there will be a shift in the polling if they convict him of that stuff in New York, but honestly, I think even most non-Trump people see that as a complete witch hunt. I mean, it’s idiotic on its face… and there’s a good possibility they won’t even get a conviction.

If he loses that case and gets convicted, perhaps it will hurt him in some of the tightest races, but so far all they have done with all of these cases is make him stronger. I mean, he wasn’t even set to win the nomination until those idiots went and raided Mar a Lago. Everything they have done has done nothing but help Trump. Why should this be any different?

Worse yet for the Democrats, if Trump were to miracle a hung jury or even an acquittal in New York, I think it will really be time to start thinking about changing out Joe Biden for someone else… because that will make him unstoppable. Can you imagine meltdown the media would bless him with? You just can’t buy that kind of publicity.

In the end, if current trends continue, in my opinion, I think Trump has a very real possibility of winning with 313 electoral votes. He could lose both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and still win with 278.

Trump only needs a few of the swing states, and almost all are leaning in his direction. Further, absolutely nothing is currently trending in Biden’s direction. He’s not gaining ground anywhere that I can see.

At this moment, this is Trump’s race to lose… and if you think that means he can’t screw it up, well, my friends… you don’t know the Republicans. They can 100% screw it up.

Let’s see how the next few months develop.

—Virgil

Non Sequitur

So… not for nothing, but I am really looking forward to a year or two from now when all this Israel stuff is gone and mostly forgotten (by the Democrats) and some group of fat, hideous, genderless, sorta-chicks at some Ivy League university start melting down over a Halloween costume or some other perceived micro-aggression.

It’s going to be super enjoyable to laugh in their faces and ask if they were one of the kids trying to round up the Jews. 😂😂😂

See ya later ‘woke’! The moment you try to run the Jews into the sea, you don’t get to claim everyone else is a Nazi.

Shalom, scumbag!

—V