Final Prediction: It's A Red Tsunami

They don't see it coming

Hey Virgil, are you sure?

I’m pretty sure. I’ve spent the last bunch of weeks watching the polls tighten in almost every previously lean or safe Democrat toss up, and I’ve drawn two conclusions. First, I don’t think the older polls were correct in the first place. I think they were (and many cases still are) undercounting key GOP constituencies, namely working class whites, hispanics, and black men. Second, I am seeing independents break in big numbers for Republicans almost everywhere.

Here’s what’s happening in the most competitive areas around the country. People have been somewhat uneasy about the Dobbs decision and white, college educated voters are still traumatized by Trump. In response, the Democratic Party has decided to center its midterm push on those two issues, abortion and Trump. In short, they have badly overplayed their hand almost everywhere and failed to address the concerns most Americans hold.

Poll after poll has shown that the economy / inflation is the #1 issue for voters outside of deep blue big cities. In most places abortion doesn’t crack the top four. Other motivating factors for people are cultural issues. A couple of examples of those: Schools seeming to worry more about turning your son into a girl than teaching him math. Screaming, unattractive activists, residual anger over Covid policy (Biden just said today to make sure you get that extra shot!), and the general feeling that Democrats are doing the exact opposite of anything that might help the country.

Yet if you tune into the mainstream Democrat networks like The New York Times, WaPo, MSNBC, CNN, etc… all you really hear or read about is Ukraine (which nobody actually cares about), abortion, “muh January 6th”, Donald Trump, and how white people are all racists (except for the ones who live in Old Town Alexandria, obviously). The bubble that the Democratic Party is living in has been getting smaller and smaller since Obama’s second term. At this point, they are down to big city dwelling childless people who think their Frenchy is a child, and black women. I mean… That might be a little bit of hyperbole, but it’s not far off.

Can you show us what you’re talking about?

Gladly! Take a look at the below video. It’s a video by a dude named Dylan who, as a performance art piece, or a joke, or just a stunt to get famous, decided to pretend he’s a girl. Please understand me… I am not saying he’s trans. He’s decidedly not trans. He created a character and went full Larry the Cable Guy and just sort of became the character. That’s not the real dude.

In this video, Dylan is dicking around on Tik Tok or whatever and some woke company decided to have him come for some “woman appreciation day” for some reason. The video went viral and he became famous overnight. Whatever, it’s fine. I deeply don’t care.

But what does the Biden Administration do? They invite him to The White House to discuss women and trans issues… Seriously. They did that, taped it, and released the tape. Here it is.

Now ask yourself… it’s two weeks out from an election where the Dems are about to get slaughtered. Who, exactly, is this talking to? What is the thought process behind doing this right now? The answer is obvious. Whoever set this thing up thinks Twitter is real life, and that her yoga class in Georgetown is representative of the fruited plain. That’s honestly as far as her thought process has gone.

This is also true of virtually every other decision the Democrats have made going into this election. Gas prices are too high? Buy a Tesla. Inflation got you down? It’s a small price to pay in order to pass a massive climate change bill. Screaming hysterical activists spray painting everything? Well… not in their neighborhoods. The same with crime. They don’t see the crime. They don’t see black men attacking innocent people for no reason in big cities around the country… and if they did see it, they wouldn’t say anything because “muh racism”. Also, you seriously don’t want to risk nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine? What are you, some kind of Kremlin agent?

It’s laughable.

On top of everything else, they tried to make a big show of subpoenaing Donald Trump for the January 6th commission. Look… for my Democratic friends… this might be hard to hear, but nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, gives a shit about January 6th. The same way Democrats don’t care about the cities that burned and the hundreds of people who were killed in the BLM riots a couple of years ago… nobody gives two tiddlydicks about Jan 6th. Maybe it would be better if both sides cared about both issues, but they don’t. Deal with it and move on. It’s not helping you.

Alright Virgil. Can you get more specific about the midterms?

Sure thing! First thing’s first. Let’s define some terms.

Dem win / GOP Loss: Dems manage to keep the House

Draw: GOP takes the House, loses the Senate and no gain in Governors and state houses

Dem loss / GOP Win: GOP takes House by -25 or Senate and net gain in Governors and state houses

Red Wave: GOP takes House by +25 or more and Senate and net gain a bunch of Governors and state houses.

Red Tsunami: GOP takes House by +40 or more and Senate with 53 seats or more and at least one of NY, MN, or PA governorships.

Dear readers, we are looking at a red tsunami, and no dirty tricks or “muh Jan 6th” freakouts or October surprises are going to change it.

First of all, the polls are wrong. Real Clear Politics is admitting they are wrong, 538/Nate Silver(plated) is hallucinating. Even Trafalgar, which is a right leaning poll and proved the most accurate over in the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections is admitting they think they are undercounting GOP support. The fact that the polls are undercounting Republicans is obvious, the real question is by how much, and to a lesser priority, why are they undercounting them?

How much are the polls missing Republicans?

Obviously that depends on where we are talking about. The polls are missing GOP support in a few key demographics. The largest demographic is white working class conservative voters who refuse to answer polls, or they give inaccurate information. The second is hispanic or Latino voters who will break harder for Republicans this year than in years past. Finally are black men who will see a larger amount of defection from the Democratic Party this year than in years past.

My best guess on how big of an error is area specific. In PA, I think that Western PA is being undercounted by 10 points which moves the numbers by 4 points in the GOP favor, statewide. Ohio is being undercounted by 8 points (based on 2020 results). Michigan is 4 points. Arizona is 5 or 6 points. New York could be as much as 10 points. Florida is 7 to 10 points. Basically the GOP is going to outperform polls pretty significantly in all the battleground states. This will send all the toss ups into the red column and might provide for some surprises in the “lean/tilt blue” column.

Why can’t the polls catch these voters?

Assuming I’m right about the three demos they are missing, let’s start with white working class voters. These folks are angry at the establishment. They don’t trust the press and they hate pollsters. A couple of decades ago a Gallup person would make a call at about 7:00 PM and someone would talk to them. Gallup was a legitimate organization and why not take part? These days rural white working class folks would rather tell you where they keep all their guns… i.e. not gonna happen. The polls will have to come up with some way to better estimate the enthusiasm for these people in future elections, but as of now… they are a black box. We won’t know until Election Day.

As for hispanics and Latinos, polls are simply relying on historical data. They know that the Latino vote has been creeping more conservative over the past several cycles, but they have not accounted for a larger than normal leap, like you will see this year. Latinos are tired of being called Latinx and used as some kind of pawn. They are religious, family oriented, patriotic Americans, whose neighborhoods are being disproportionately affected by violent crime… and Dems have told them in no uncertain terms, they simply don’t care. Abortion until delivery, hatred and denigration of their traditional values and religion, taking them for granted, assuming they all want illegal immigration and open borders… the list goes on. This is the year, a majority of them are done with Dems… and the polls have not accounted for that.

Finally there are black men. I’m telling you, black men are getting a raw deal in the new liberal Democratic Party. The culture has become matriarchal. All of the black leaders of the progressive movement are women. All the people you see on TV are women. They have made it abundantly clear how little they think of black men. For decades now they have pushed them out of their homes and denigrated them. They have thrown them away. The only time they even talk about them is when the dumbest among them manages to get his ass killed by some cop.

Black men, like all men, have the natural urge to protect and provide for their families… and current black leftist culture has virtually banned that. We aren’t at a point where black men will abandon the Democratic Party as a majority, but they are leaving… and leaving en masse. Where are they finding a home? Right here in the horrible, racist, GOP where we tell them that masculinity is a good thing, and that it’s right to marry the mother of your child, and protect and provide for them. We tell them they are valuable and appreciated. You’ll see 35% of black male votes go to the GOP this year. That alone is enough to get Walker across the finish line in Georgia either on the 8th or in the runoff.

So that’s why I think the polls are wrong. Disagree? Let me know!

Projected maps!

House of Representatives

Senate:

With NH, it could actually be 54 - 46… but you never get all of it.

Governors:

And if all that happens… that will be a red tsunami. The really fun part will be watching the left freak out. What do you think they’ll do?

Riot? Probably.

Question the outcome of a fair election? Definitely… and that will be my favorite part.

Call everyone racist? What do you think? Racist!

Do a little self reflection, dump the woke, and get back to trying to represent their constituents? LOL, what are you, stupid or something?

When it’s all said and done, one thing is guaranteed. They will claim that “muh democracy” is in peril because stupid, uneducated, dirt people in the middle of nowhere don’t know how to vote right. And it will be wonderful.

Non Sequitur

Just watched part of the Oz-Fetterman debate and the Zeldin-Hochul debate. I’ll just leave this here…

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Happy Hump-day friends!

—Virgil