Crisis in Ukraine

What we know, what we don't, and how to look at all of this

What We Know

If you’ve been following closely or know all this already, feel free to skip to the What We Don’t Know section for real questions about what’s actually happening and some analysis / conclusions.

Plus What If?

Current Situation:

For reasons that we will speculate on later in this analysis, on February 24, 2022 Russia began an invasion of Ukraine. In an attempted pincer movement, Russia opened hostilities on four main fronts of Ukraine.

1. On Ukraine’s northern border to head south and take the capital city of Kyiv. (currently stalled)

2. On Ukraine’s north east border near the second largest city, Kharkiv. (More successful than the first front, but stalled in Kharkiv)

3. On the far eastern border coming from the disputed territories where minor hostilities have been taking place between Russian separatists and the Ukrainians for several years. (Bogged down)

4. An amphibious assault on Odessa to the west of Crimea. (Apparently failed. Assets rerouted to Crimea which is now making territorial gains in the south heading north).

The military goal seems to be that Russia would like to go for regime change in Ukraine by killing, arresting, or exiling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The initial incursion into Ukraine has seen limited targeting of major cities from the air, limited destruction of critical infrastructure, and limited targeting of civilians.

It is believed that Putin had thought, or at least hoped, that Ukraine’s government would falter and that a pro-Russian puppet could be installed. He apparently believed the citizenry would accept this and life would go on.

That has not been the case. Zelenskyy has elected to remain in Kyiv, with his government in tact. He and his ministers have encouraged all Ukrainians to fight the invaders. They have handed out weapons to anyone willing to carry them and banned all men, aged 16 to 60, from leaving the country… ordering them to take up arms and fight. The Ukrainian citizenry has been rallied by this stance and in partnership with the Ukrainian military, they have mounted a surprisingly effective defense.

Currently Russians are taking larger casualties than expected, and are reportedly suffering from low morale. They are bogged down and have failed to effectively capture or control even one major population center as of this writing on Monday 2/28/22.

The Military Outlook:

There is no way to sugar coat this. Despite the inspiring defense of their homeland, the longterm outlook for the Ukrainian military is bleak. While Russia has, until now, refrained from utilizing drone warfare, incendiary or cluster munitions (in population centers), targeting civilians, and destroying critical infrastructure… it is very clear that they are capable of doing exactly that if they choose.

The long term outlook for Ukraine, if they do not receive military aid packages that include fighter-bomber aircraft, state of the art intelligence, unmanned aerial attack vehicles, and other 21st century munitions… their ability to hold out is on a clock. At some point the harassment of rocket incursion, minor armor, and small arms contact will eat away at both their assets and resolve.

Russia has agreed to talks with Ukraine which are taking place as of this writing. It is widely believed that the talks are not expected to lead to a ceasefire.

Kyiv is currently holding, but unless something changes, it will fall. The only question is how long will it take.

The US and NATO:

The US and NATO have imposed sanctions and given military aid in the form of intelligence and basic kinetic weaponry to the Ukrainians. They have not engaged Russia in a military sense. The situation is incredibly delicate regarding Russia’s nuclear capabilities. I’ll discuss this in more detail in the analysis.

NATO began with a relatively weak stance and minor sanctions along with shelving a proposed pipeline, but has stepped up their sanctions as the conflict has escalated. The sanctions in place now have caused the Russian economy to falter and frozen many Russian assets.

What We Don’t know

That should bring you pretty much up to speed if you haven’t been following all this too closely. Now it’s time to discuss some of the aspects of this conflict that we don’t know or understand, despite what the extra confident talking heads tell us on TV.

Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine?

This is a basic question and there are many theories. One of the most legitimate has to do with the expansion of the NATO treaty over the last couple of decades to include multiple former Soviet Bloc states. This theory is well described by Sagaar Enjeti below.

It is claimed by Putin that the expansion of NATO into the Baltics and discussion of the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO was a direct threat to the Russian people. Putin has claimed that Ukraine was always rightfully Russian and even went so far as to harshly criticize Lenin for allowing it to remain semi-independent when he founded the Soviet Union.

Having said that, there was no ongoing active discussion about including Ukraine in NATO. The idea had been floated, but the consensus was that due to the volatility of its relationship to Russia and its corruption, it should not be eligible for Article 5 protection. Could Ukraine have eventually entered NATO? Sure… but this was not imminent or even being actively discussed. Further, a major objection / threat from Russia could have easily derailed any discussion of it for years.

So, if it’s not that, then why has Putin done this?

The fact is that there are several theories about this from a personal desire of Putin to reassemble the former Soviet Union, to the activity of neo-Nazi groups inside Ukraine. But in truth, we don’t really know exactly why Putin decided to do this now.

Both the fact that it happened and the fact that we don’t know why are undoubtably failures of both the US and NATO policy. These events have changed the world order and will lead to nothing good for anyone… but I don’t believe it is knowable at this time exactly what Putin was or is thinking… other than that he apparently thought this was going to be a lot easier than it has turned out to be.

Why Am I Watching A 1980’s War Take Place In 2022?

Dog fights between jets, helicopters shooting at each other, pincer movements with brigade sized units, 3 mile long supply columns clearly visible from satellites and drones, Javelin antitank missiles, Stingers… Just what the hell are we talking about here? That’s not how modern wars are fought.

To give you some context, this would be like at the Battle of the Bulge in WWII, the US Army running into a company of Napoleonic infantry, in formation, performing volley fire… or to be more chronologically accurate, the 1940 Wehrmacht running into Teddy Roosevelt and the Rough Riders. It just makes no sense whatsoever.

The Russian Army isn’t as sophisticated as the US Army… no army is… but they aren’t without communications, modern weaponry, and modern tactics.

We proved in 2003, the way to take a numerically inferior enemy through invasion is with overwhelming force. First you begin with an aerial bombardment that completely incapacitates the military’s ability to communicate, effectively destroys their air assets, and either decapitates their political leadership or sends them into hiding. Then you hit their mechanized military with such an overwhelming ground force that you achieve conventional military victory in a matter of days.

Then you get to deal with the insurgency…

Russia has the ability to do this, yet they have chosen not to. Why?

If the reports are to be believed, they have taken thousands of casualties compared to hundreds of the enemy. Any competent force should have those numbers reversed.

It makes me believe there is something that we aren’t being told.

Why has the Russian Army stopped outside of Kyiv?

Is there a Ukrainian Army holding them back? Has there been a battle raging for the last four days just outside the city? Where is the footage of this battle? Shouldn’t you be able to hear sustained combat from the city center in Kyiv where the press is currently held up with cameras running 24/7?

Are we really to believe that the Russian Army is unable to move into the city because if a bunch of civilians with Molotov cocktails and Kalashnikovs? What is holding them back?

Why are the two countries most in the American news over the last 5 years suddenly at war?

Just think about this for a moment. For the last 5 years we have been hearing about Russia and Ukraine, nonstop. Not in the context of them wanting to fight each other, but in the context that Russia apparently diddled with the 2016 election (but not the 2020 election… that one was perfect) and installed Donald Trump as their puppet.

Then when that didn’t stick, they decided that because of a phone call with Zelenskyy, the same guy currently rallying his countrymen in the streets, that Zelenskyy was being shaken down by Trump for dirt on Biden. Then, when that didn’t stick, the other side hit back with accusations that the Biden family (the same guy who is now President) has been deeply involved in the Ukrainian gas industry to the tune of more than a few dollars.

Look, put whatever legitimacy you want on the Russia investigation or the “perfect” phone call, or the Hunter Biden stuff… you must admit that it is a remarkable coincidence that these two nations, of all the countries in the world, decided to go to war against each other…

What is with all the propaganda?

Has Russia really suffered thousands of casualties? Did that missile that hit the apartment building really not kill anyone? Oh wait… now they said it killed two people. Why didn’t it explode, anyway?

Did you know the Ukrainian heroes on Snake Island that told the Russians to go fuck themselves aren’t dead? Yeah, the Ukrainians just made a Facebook post about it.

Also, did you see that woman who was interviewed on Neil Cavuto’s show on Saturday morning? In the history of warfare, has there ever been a more perfect mouthpiece?

Seriously, a mother of 3, huddling in a bomb shelter, while her husband is upstairs bravely fighting off the invading Russkies. She speaks perfect English. She has a perfect understanding of the situation. She is insistent that NATO should enter this fight. Her children are perfectly behaved.

Watch that interview and you tell me if your spidey sense doesn’t go off…

Oh, and don’t get me started on the most attractive Ukrainian in the world, heroically blowing himself up to destroy a bridge and stop the Russian advance. Except according to The Sun this was the bridge… and 1) it’s not destroyed and 2) it didn’t stop the Russians.

I’m not trying to be a jerk here… But damn, I have eyes. Does that bridge look destroyed to you?

Analysis

Look, I am not Alex Jones, and I am hardly a conspiracy theorist. Some of what we are hearing can be chalked up to the fog of war. But that doesn’t change the fact that a good bit of this doesn’t make any sense… and simply adding the narrative that maybe Putin has gone cuckoo for coco puffs doesn’t really clarify it.

Oh, and you’ll just have to forgive me for not trusting the “I wish I could show you all the intelligence” line… I wasn’t born yesterday.

Let’s Get Real:

We are talking about dire consequences if this conflict spills beyond the borders of Ukraine. Here’s the thing, I don’t understand what is happening, and I’m pretty smart and have studied this kind of thing a lot. If I can’t make sense of this, perhaps it doesn’t make sense. And if it doesn’t make sense, then perhaps we aren’t being told the whole truth.

Putin has upped his nuclear readiness. The US and NATO have responded. Neo-Cons are telling us he’s using “escalate to deescalate” out of one side of their mouths while telling us he’s battier than Patton, out of the other side. Putin said this was about NATO but did not alter his advance when Ukraine promised it would never become part of NATO as a concession for a ceasefire.

This is a terribly dangerous situation. Russia has 6,000 nuclear weapons and while we can defend against some of them it is extremely doubtful we can defend against all of them… even here in the homeland, much less in Europe and elsewhere around the world.

China is antagonistic in all of this. Our politicians are feckless. Our intelligence agencies are either clueless to the bigger picture, or lying, or both.

There is simply no way to look at this as anything other than the largest foreign policy disaster… possibly ever, depending on how it all works out. Iraq was a mistake, but it was regional. This could very easily become global, a la 1914 plus the H-Bomb.

And the worst part of all of it is that in order to deter further aggression from Russia and achieve some sort of détente, we have to first get a real understanding of the position, capabilities, and motivations of the government of Russia. And we likely don’t have any one of the three.

How is that possible?

Because for the last half decade, the only thing that was ever allowed to be said about Russia was that they messed with the 2016 election and no member of our government was allowed to engage with them without being called a damn Russian spy.

So, that got us here… blind, afraid, and trying to figure out what Crazy Ivan is going to do… while trying to convince ourselves that a bunch of college students and women with Coke bottles full of gasoline and AK-47s will stop The Russian Bear.

What If?

“The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist”—Charles Baudelaire

Here is a real “out there” scenario… What if they are intentionally trying to show themselves as incompetent? What if they are using intentionally old tactics and Cold War nonsense to convince us that they are not capable of what they clearly are capable of.

Think I’m nuts? Okay, then you tell me why they are literally painting targets like it’s 1944 and in the OSS. You tell me why they are using antiquated military equipment and tactics to invade a modern country. You tell me why they are intentionally stalling their victory and making this look like this is much harder than it is.

Tell me they are doing that, when according to our own intelligence agencies, they have engaged in incredibly sophisticated attacks on our banking, elections, and energy over the last few years… For God sakes! Just 6 months ago, they virtually shut down our gas pipelines with the click of a button!

Yeah, that really happened.

What’s another reason? And I mean that as a true interrogative. Please tell me why Russia is pretending they can’t effectively take over Ukraine.

Let’s just pray for peace… and strive to do better in the future, assuming there is one.

Non Sequitur (maybe)

—Virgil

God bless and thank you.