1. The Russian army at the troop level is not very good. It is essentially a conscript army in which their conscripts serve a single year. I have been knowing this and saying it since I served in Germany in the 1970s and saw them in the field.
In a year, you can barely teach a FNG how to march and shoot a rifle. You cannot teach them how to use sophisticated gameware.
The Russians are notorious for picking quantity over quality all the bloody time. This is why they have 12,000 tanks.
Having said all of that, the Russians have a gear we haven't seen yet. They are already in the war crimes arena but they have a capability to literally wipe a city off the face of the earth as they have routinely done.
2. Tanks are great against tanks. In WWII, the Germans would routinely rout a Russian tank corps with a single shot up German Panzer division -- better leadership, better gear, better tactics, better gunnery, better maintenance.
The Russians would finally grind the Germans down with massive numbers of tanks, but the Russians never outmaneuvered a German Panzer division. Ever.
Tanks are not effective in urban warfare. In fact tanks quickly devolve into road blocks in urban warfare.
3. Since the Russians took Crimea in Feb/Mar 2014 -- yes, it's been 8 years -- the Ukrainian army has been building capabilities and training.
They know how to use the shoulder fired weapons they are receiving from all over the world. The Ukraine army is a scrappy bunch of Cossacks. A Cossack w/ a rocket can take out a tank or a jet in a very cost effective financial transaction.
4. The big front everybody is ignoring is the attack on Economic Fortress Putin.
It took some time to find our nuts (the Krauts got theirs back from storage), but here is what is going on:
a. The Russian ruble has become the rubble. It is down 30-40% and this week will test new lows. It is a third world currency and every holder of the rubble is headed for the exits.
b. When your currency goes down in value, all imports become wildly more expensive. Inflation in Russia is going to be Weimar Republic legacy inflation.
b. The Moscow Stock Market was closed yesterday. What happens today? Breaking news as I am typing -- won't reopen until 5 March. Wow.
Every person or firm that owns a Russian stock is a seller and the market tanks. Might take a week or two, but it is going to be the Mother of All Selloffs.
American based Russia-focused funds are tanking. Big time. VanEck Russia ETF and iShares MSCI Russia ETF -- both down almost 30%.
People get very pissed when government actions destroy their wealth -- especially oligarchs.
c. The Russian banks doubled interest rates. Weak currency, high interest rates = massive inflation.
d. There are runs on the bank. Every individual in the rubble is getting out. The banks don't have enough foreign currency to make this work.
Russians will go right from the closed bank teller window to the streets. There will be financial riots.
The Russian Central Bank has already forbidden corporations from vomiting up rubbles.
e. The Russian banks -- some of them -- are cut off from the SWIFT system which means they cannot process inbound or outbound payments.
Want to send a few pounds sterling from your London mansion to your sixth mistress in Moscow? No bueno. No wire service.
f. The Russian credit card system and ATMs will no longer work. Even the Moscow subway system cannot use a credit card. Apple Pay, Google Pay? Haha. Nope.
g. THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS THE SAME SIZE AS ITALY'S. Putin knew he was going to be sanctioned. He built up $600B in foreign currency and gold reserves. Good luck with that gold, Vlad. He is pissing away some vast amount of that in Ukraine.
I have heard numbers from $5-25B a day for the Russian army to operate in Ukraine. It costs money for bombs and fuel. I doubt it costs that much, but it costs something.
If the US would turn off the Russian oil tap into the US -- we import 600K bbl/day -- and use oil as a weapon, Putin would be living under a bridge by Thanksgiving.
This whole war is intertwined with oil like it was in the Middle East.
We are in that delicate transition from sporty to dicey.
All of what your are saying is verifiable and seems accurate. I am likely more weary of the the actual capabilities of the Russkie conventional military than you are... but all in all I think we agree.
Where I am very concerned is that if Russia decides that the west has acted upon them in an existential way... which economically, we have... will they respond in a suicidal fashion?
That is the main concern. Frankly, long term, bringing European energy dependance out of the eastern bloc and into the Western Hemisphere... specifically to the US and Canada, is a net gain for us, but only if Ivan doesn't do something crazy like invade a NATO country or launch a Nuke. (Tactical or otherwise).
I think I'm right when I state above that we don't have enough insight on the motivations of Russia right now. We don't know why they did this. We don't know why they are taking a half measure here... which they undoubtedly are... and we don't know how to deescalate the situation.
Like you, I am hopeful that the economic atom bomb we just dropped on Moscow submits them. If it does, we can turn some of the water back on and bring the temperature down... But if it doesn't... and the oligarchs are not able to push Putin to détente... This has every possibility to spin out of control.
And it's not like our leadership has shown themselves to be up to the task of navigating this particularly skillfully.
The Russian formula -- Russian speaking people in some part of a country are being "mistreated,' Russia rides to their aid, sends in "peacekeepers" with tanks, kills a lot of people, destroys a lot of real estate -- is identifiable and has been in use through Georgia, Moldova, Chechnya, Khazakstan, Belarus, Crimea, Don Bas, and now Ukraine writ large.
Violence is a gear in Russian diplomacy that has been used frequently though we pretend Ukraine is a whole new deal. It is not. It is the latest chapter in a War & Peace saga written by a little shit name Putin.
Please do this. You will be amazed. This website is a hoot. It is the Russian propaganda attempt to speak to English speaking persons everywhere.
In everything they have done since Putin has been in power, they have been consistent. Putin is a mad man. Hitler was a mad man. Mad men are a danger to the survival of mankind.
In all that we do, we must always remember this particular mad man has 6,000 nukes and is generally cut off from the truth. Does he have the potential to go off on the world.
Hell, yes.
The truth is this -- freedom is good whilst Communism sucks. The real enemy in Ukraine is freedom.
If Ukraine has a forward thinking, western oriented democracy, how can Russia ever keep the Russian people under the thumb of Communism? They can't.
The Internet has made all of this more visible.
This does not end well. Be well, amigo. Keep your Go Bag handy.
I thought this same thing, about Russia maybe intentionally sandbagging this whole invasion. What if they are doing this to play possum a bit? That bodes ill for everyone, because the question is why would they ever do that? Also, the lack of real war footage online is bonkers given what we are being told. Bonkers.
Maybe they are sandbagging because they recognized that they will have an insurgency on their hands and are looking for an exit... Maybe it something far more odious.
Virgil, great stuff. Well played.
May I inject a couple of thoughts?
1. The Russian army at the troop level is not very good. It is essentially a conscript army in which their conscripts serve a single year. I have been knowing this and saying it since I served in Germany in the 1970s and saw them in the field.
In a year, you can barely teach a FNG how to march and shoot a rifle. You cannot teach them how to use sophisticated gameware.
The Russians are notorious for picking quantity over quality all the bloody time. This is why they have 12,000 tanks.
Having said all of that, the Russians have a gear we haven't seen yet. They are already in the war crimes arena but they have a capability to literally wipe a city off the face of the earth as they have routinely done.
2. Tanks are great against tanks. In WWII, the Germans would routinely rout a Russian tank corps with a single shot up German Panzer division -- better leadership, better gear, better tactics, better gunnery, better maintenance.
The Russians would finally grind the Germans down with massive numbers of tanks, but the Russians never outmaneuvered a German Panzer division. Ever.
Tanks are not effective in urban warfare. In fact tanks quickly devolve into road blocks in urban warfare.
3. Since the Russians took Crimea in Feb/Mar 2014 -- yes, it's been 8 years -- the Ukrainian army has been building capabilities and training.
They know how to use the shoulder fired weapons they are receiving from all over the world. The Ukraine army is a scrappy bunch of Cossacks. A Cossack w/ a rocket can take out a tank or a jet in a very cost effective financial transaction.
4. The big front everybody is ignoring is the attack on Economic Fortress Putin.
https://themusingsofthebigredcar.com/economic-fortress-putin-the-other-front/
It took some time to find our nuts (the Krauts got theirs back from storage), but here is what is going on:
a. The Russian ruble has become the rubble. It is down 30-40% and this week will test new lows. It is a third world currency and every holder of the rubble is headed for the exits.
b. When your currency goes down in value, all imports become wildly more expensive. Inflation in Russia is going to be Weimar Republic legacy inflation.
b. The Moscow Stock Market was closed yesterday. What happens today? Breaking news as I am typing -- won't reopen until 5 March. Wow.
Every person or firm that owns a Russian stock is a seller and the market tanks. Might take a week or two, but it is going to be the Mother of All Selloffs.
American based Russia-focused funds are tanking. Big time. VanEck Russia ETF and iShares MSCI Russia ETF -- both down almost 30%.
People get very pissed when government actions destroy their wealth -- especially oligarchs.
c. The Russian banks doubled interest rates. Weak currency, high interest rates = massive inflation.
d. There are runs on the bank. Every individual in the rubble is getting out. The banks don't have enough foreign currency to make this work.
Russians will go right from the closed bank teller window to the streets. There will be financial riots.
The Russian Central Bank has already forbidden corporations from vomiting up rubbles.
e. The Russian banks -- some of them -- are cut off from the SWIFT system which means they cannot process inbound or outbound payments.
Want to send a few pounds sterling from your London mansion to your sixth mistress in Moscow? No bueno. No wire service.
f. The Russian credit card system and ATMs will no longer work. Even the Moscow subway system cannot use a credit card. Apple Pay, Google Pay? Haha. Nope.
g. THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS THE SAME SIZE AS ITALY'S. Putin knew he was going to be sanctioned. He built up $600B in foreign currency and gold reserves. Good luck with that gold, Vlad. He is pissing away some vast amount of that in Ukraine.
I have heard numbers from $5-25B a day for the Russian army to operate in Ukraine. It costs money for bombs and fuel. I doubt it costs that much, but it costs something.
If the US would turn off the Russian oil tap into the US -- we import 600K bbl/day -- and use oil as a weapon, Putin would be living under a bridge by Thanksgiving.
This whole war is intertwined with oil like it was in the Middle East.
We are in that delicate transition from sporty to dicey.
Keep writing, amigo.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Thanks for your insight sir!
All of what your are saying is verifiable and seems accurate. I am likely more weary of the the actual capabilities of the Russkie conventional military than you are... but all in all I think we agree.
Where I am very concerned is that if Russia decides that the west has acted upon them in an existential way... which economically, we have... will they respond in a suicidal fashion?
That is the main concern. Frankly, long term, bringing European energy dependance out of the eastern bloc and into the Western Hemisphere... specifically to the US and Canada, is a net gain for us, but only if Ivan doesn't do something crazy like invade a NATO country or launch a Nuke. (Tactical or otherwise).
I think I'm right when I state above that we don't have enough insight on the motivations of Russia right now. We don't know why they did this. We don't know why they are taking a half measure here... which they undoubtedly are... and we don't know how to deescalate the situation.
Like you, I am hopeful that the economic atom bomb we just dropped on Moscow submits them. If it does, we can turn some of the water back on and bring the temperature down... But if it doesn't... and the oligarchs are not able to push Putin to détente... This has every possibility to spin out of control.
And it's not like our leadership has shown themselves to be up to the task of navigating this particularly skillfully.
IMHO and with respect
.
The Russian formula -- Russian speaking people in some part of a country are being "mistreated,' Russia rides to their aid, sends in "peacekeepers" with tanks, kills a lot of people, destroys a lot of real estate -- is identifiable and has been in use through Georgia, Moldova, Chechnya, Khazakstan, Belarus, Crimea, Don Bas, and now Ukraine writ large.
Violence is a gear in Russian diplomacy that has been used frequently though we pretend Ukraine is a whole new deal. It is not. It is the latest chapter in a War & Peace saga written by a little shit name Putin.
Want some entertainment -- go read Pravda -- https://english.pravda.ru/
Please do this. You will be amazed. This website is a hoot. It is the Russian propaganda attempt to speak to English speaking persons everywhere.
In everything they have done since Putin has been in power, they have been consistent. Putin is a mad man. Hitler was a mad man. Mad men are a danger to the survival of mankind.
In all that we do, we must always remember this particular mad man has 6,000 nukes and is generally cut off from the truth. Does he have the potential to go off on the world.
Hell, yes.
The truth is this -- freedom is good whilst Communism sucks. The real enemy in Ukraine is freedom.
If Ukraine has a forward thinking, western oriented democracy, how can Russia ever keep the Russian people under the thumb of Communism? They can't.
The Internet has made all of this more visible.
This does not end well. Be well, amigo. Keep your Go Bag handy.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
I'll check it out!
I thought this same thing, about Russia maybe intentionally sandbagging this whole invasion. What if they are doing this to play possum a bit? That bodes ill for everyone, because the question is why would they ever do that? Also, the lack of real war footage online is bonkers given what we are being told. Bonkers.
Maybe they are sandbagging because they recognized that they will have an insurgency on their hands and are looking for an exit... Maybe it something far more odious.
It's appalling that we don't know.