Senate Breakdown!
A rundown of competitive Senate races around the country
US Senate Prediction by Virgil
We are down to the last 30 days until the midterms and some things are coming into focus while others are still a big question. It’s unlikely that shy of a nuclear war the results will change much at this point, so I am putting my predictive powers into action and setting what I think in stone!
What do you think? Will I have to eat my words? Have I gotten it all wrong? Will this live on forever for my detractors to call me a damn fool from now until the apocalypse (which might be happening before the election)? I guess we will find out on November 8th!
There are 34 US Senate seats up for grabs this November. The vast majority of those are not likely to be a surprise, but there are a few to watch which will determine who controls the Senate next year. These are my guesses as to how the contests will go. Over the next couple of weeks I’ll be making House predictions as well as Governor predictions. Let’s see what happens!
The Senate
Raphael Warnock (D)* v. Herschel Walker (R) - US Senate, GA
Okay, time to admit it. Walker is a dum-dum. I don’t know if it’s CTE or just the fact that he’s a moron, but the guy is a seriously flawed candidate. From finding secret kids, to his denial about paying for an abortion (that he definitely paid for), to generally just holding some pretty extreme views, the guy was a bad pick.
This was an unforced error on the part of the GOP. Trump pushed hard to have Walker run. He was a world class running back from UGA with a national championship and a Heisman trophy under his belt before he went on to a storied NFL career. His personal life is also a mess… Gee, where have I heard that story before? Did he happen to star in any Naked Gun movies? “Nordberg!!!”
That might be a little harsh… I mean OJ Simpson did kill a couple of people and Herschel Walker only made the attempt. Also, OJ Simpson can speak in public.
As I mentioned, there were other options. Latham Saddler was a solid alternative. I met him at a fundraiser in Buckhead, and he seems like a smart guy. His wife is great. His positions are strong. He’s a former Navy SEAL Officer and a graduate of UGA. Unfortunately (and I’ll admit that this was my assessment of him when I met him) he just wasn’t ready for prime time. Nobody had heard of him and I felt like he was more suited for a House seat than The Senate at that point. In the end he failed to gain traction against the star power of Walker. That’s no slight on Latham. He’s a really great guy and I’m sure he has a big future ahead of him, but this wasn’t his year.
The other likely candidate was Gary Black. Black has a very strong background in the agriculture business and is a solid conservative. He’s also a graduate of UGA from around the time Walker was playing ball there. Unfortunately, again, he just couldn't overcome the star power that Walker brought. Black seemed old, very white, too country, and while I liked him… he just wasn’t going to get the nomination. The feeling of the GOP at the time was that Walker might be able to take a sizable portion of the Atlanta black vote, guaranteeing victory. That seems unlikely at this point, but I think that’s what many primary voters were thinking.
So we got Herschel Walker… Most primary voters didn’t have a clue what they were getting with him, but GOP insiders sure did. If Walker looses this layup of a Senate seat pick up to Warnock, the socialist, it’s the GOP’s fault.
Prediction: It’s going to be tight, especially after the explosive videos from Walker’s Tick-Tok influencer son, the gay conservative Christian Walker, who comes across as young, angry, and pretty credible.
Having said that, I think in the end Kemp (who is likely to win by double-digits) will pull Walker across the finish line. There aren’t any real Kemp-Warnock voters out there… There are some conservatives who just won’t vote Senate, but I think that number is low as well. In the end, Dana Loesh said it best; “I don't care if Herschel Walker paid to abort endangered baby eagles. I want control of the Senate”. That attitude should get him across.
Result: Walker by 2% +/-
John Fetterman (D) v. Mehmet Oz (R) - US Senate, PA
Another unforced error. Dr. Mehmet Oz is a celebrity doctor who was on the Oprah Winfrey show and then went on to various other fame. He got his BA from Harvard and his MD / MBA from Penn. He has a relatively unexciting personal life from what I can tell, and is a secular Muslim. None of that scares me, particularly… except that he has failed to capture the energy of a good Republican wave year. He hasn’t done anything wrong, per se… but he really hasn’t done anything right either. His attacks make him seem mean, his politics seem wishy washy which makes the base suspicious of him. He’s just a blah candidate.
On the other hand, his opposition, John Fetterman is anything but blah. Fetterman is a 6’8” radical socialist who believes in defunding the police, letting violent criminals out of prison, a giant welfare state, and other radical positions. He dresses like a complete slob because he is trying to pander to poor Pennsylvania people and is generally unpleasant. He also suffered a stroke early in the campaign and now can’t really talk. Yet somehow this race is close.
Prediction: The polls have shown Fetterman up from the beginning of the race, but I think most politicos agree that it’s currently neck and neck. The polls have been pretty unreliable in rural Pennsylvania since at least 2014 and I don’t see why this year would be any different. Fetterman is counting on his “everyman” image to appeal to some of these voters, but I don’t see that working. He’s also a Harvard grad with rich parents and has spent most of his life unemployed except for when he was a bad mayor of one of the crappiest towns in America. What’s to like?
In the end, if black enthusiasm doesn’t beef up big time in Philadelphia and Pittsburg before next month, I think you’ll see Oz pull this out.
Result: Oz by 3-4%
Mark Kelly (D)* v. Blake Masters (R) - US Senate, AZ
This is an interesting race. Blake Masters is definitely a Trump style MAGA Republican. He’s pro-life and has been outspoken about the 2016 election. Mark Kelly is the current Senator from Arizona and is a former Navy Pilot who flew combat missions in Desert Storm, and is also a very accomplished astronaut. He commanded the Space Shuttle on its final mission and has almost 2 months combined time in space. By all accounts, Kelly seems to be an incredibly likable person with a great family, a lot of personal discipline, and I am not aware of any scandals.
This should be a tough race for Republicans, and it is. Polls have consistently had Kelly up by 4-5% and there hasn’t been much fluctuation. So why am I writing about this? Because we are about to find out how much the Hispanic vote is going to impact the results this year and Arizona is ground zero.
The Hispanic and Latino vote in the US has been moving right for several election cycles. This fact has been ignored by pollsters as well as Democrats and press. Many of the top GOP conservative leaders have names like Cruz, Rubio, Navarro, and Sandoval. Hispanic and Latino voters are conservative in lifestyle. They are pro-life and Catholic. They are family centric and are known for being hard workers and are fiercely defensive of their culture. They love America and teach their children both English and Spanish. The are not supportive of open borders. Their neighborhoods are disproportionately affected by high crime. They are not supportive of the extremes of the LGBTQIA+ movement.
The further the Democratic Party has moved away from traditional values, the more Hispanic voters pull that lever for the GOP. As a matter of fact, the only pro-life Democrat congressman left in the entire country is a Hispanic guy from south Texas and the Dems tried to primary him with a late-term abortion supporting radical.
For the GOP’s part, they are playing this well. They aren’t making a big thing out of it. They aren’t holding cringey ‘Latinx’ conferences calling them “breakfast tacos”. They aren’t pandering and aren’t acting like they own them. They are just welcoming them into the big tent along with sane gays, black men, and anyone else who wants to come.
This shift has not been accounted for, and a lot of smart people are seeing it. That shift just might hurt Kelly and put Masters in.
Prediction: Kelly is still a popular Senator in Arizona. He has a hell of a biography and seems to be a good guy. His combat pilot bonafides are a nod to John McCain. Having said that, Masters is masterful on the stump. The guy has a lot of energy and is going to be spending the next month talking to those Hispanic and Latino voters about why the Democratic Party of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden no longer represent their best interest. I think this will be tight.
Result: I don’t know. It’s neck and neck. Gun to my head… Kelly by less than 1%.
Adam Laxalt (R) v. Catherine Cortez Mastro (D)* - US Senate, NV
Here’s what you have to understand about Nevada politics. The modern Democratic control of Nevada was designed and implemented by Harry Reid, the Democratic firebrand and Senate Majority Leader from 2007-2015. Reid was one of the last and most successful of a serious breed of Democratic politicians who embraced that stereotype of the powerful backroom guy with a cigar and a glass of expensive scotch.
The man was a force. He was in the state house then the head of the gaming commission in the 70’s and early 80’s. Remember that movie Casino with Robert DeNiro? Remember the State Senator who the DeNiro’s character comped at the Tangiers and then turned on him during his Gaming Commission hearing? That guy was based on Harry Reid and DeNiro’s character was based on Lefty Rosenthal. The Casino was based on the Stardust. Casino got pretty close to the real story there.
Harry Reid didn’t get his power from the mafia, though. He spent decades backing the various unions that keep Las Vegas running. He backed the Bartenders & Beverage local, and the Culinary Workers local. He supported the construction locals, and dealers unions and other casino workers. In return, they threw their support behind the Nevada DNC… a relationship that has lasted until today.
There’s just one problem, Harry Reid is dead and all that is ancient history. It’s now no different than the stories the people tell about the days of Bugsy Siegel, Frank Sinatra, and midwest bosses. Unfortunately for the Democrats, they spent two years doing their level best to shut down Las Vegas and destroy it because of their Covid insanity. Add to that the previously discussed Hispanic defection, and the tables have turned.
Prediction: A good night for Laxalt
Result: Laxalt by 5%+
Other Races to Watch:
Maggie Hassan (D)* v. Don Bolduc (R) - US Senate, NH
Hassan is the incumbent and is likely to survive. Polling in New Hampshire is better than other places because a lot of money is spent there due to its early placement in the Presidential primaries. She’s been consistently up over Bolduc who has some problems with a moderate swing voter.
Predicted result: Hassan by 3 or 4%, but keep an eye on this… it could be a surprise.
Ron Johnson (R)* v. Mandela Barnes (D) - US Senate, WI
Predicted result: Johnson should hold. He was seen as “vulnerable” but that was wishful thinking. He’ll be fine. Johnson by 4-5%.
J.D. Vance (R) v. Tim Ryan (D) - US Senate, OH
Predicted Result: Ohio has been getting redder for the last several cycles. Vance by 5%+
Ted Budd (R) v. Cheri Beasley (D) - US Senate, NC
Predicted Result: Budd by 6+%
US Senate Predicted Results:
Keep an eye out for later this week or next weekend for my House of Representative prediction!
Non Sequitur
It’s Sunday night and I am listening to old music and thinking about old times. I recently met a few really great people. Some of them are from where I am from, and know some of the people that I know. It’s a strange but lovely feeling to feel at home, while still a stranger in a strange land. I hope that I add to their lives in a similar fashion to how they are adding to mine.
Frankly, it’s all pretty new. We are all a little bit of a mess. But I’m hopeful that after all this no man’s land, I might just find some familiar ground. 🤙
Have a great week and follow me here and on Twitter! —Virgil
Im looking forward to seeing if the Hispanic shift happens as suggested. I think Florida and Texas will also be important in that respect. One thing for certain, there will be some wailing from the left once the mid-terms are over. Now that Tulsi is leaving the Democrats there is the smell of revenge in the air.
On. The. Money.
I agree more with you than you do with yourself. While we are less than a month out, we are still 1.5 lifetimes out also. A lot can happen.
You are On. The. Money. re: Herschel Walker. Kemp will win convincingly and drag across HW along like a Dawg Pile at the goal line v 'Bama and Nicky Satan.
I finally moved to Savannah, so my vote will be decisive.
BTW, it IS going to be a huuuuuuge RED WAVE. Buckle up.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com